Posts Tagged ‘Technical Analysis’
Monday, January 30th, 2012
Learn The Stock Market Lesson - What is Technical Analysis?
Technical analysis, as opposed to fundamental analysis, is the study of market action, primarily through the use of charts. The technician believes that anything affecting the price, such as fundamentally or psychologically, will be reflected on charts. Technicians believe that the market discounts everything and that any news about a company is already priced into the stock. Keep in mind that the charts do not cause market action, but rather, they reflect the actions of the marketplace and what has already happened. However, this does not mean you should not study fundamental analysis, since it is just as important.
Technical analysis is applied social psychology because when you analyze charts, you are analyzing the behavior of traders. Charts reflect trades by all market participants: buyers, sellers, and even insiders. Each price on the charts reflects the actions or lack of actions by all the traders in the market.
Technical indicators help make our analysis more objective as it seeks to recognize trends and changes in crowd behavior so that intelligent trading decisions can be made. Technical analysts study charts to find out whether the bulls or bears are in control. They look at past charts for repetitive price patterns and study to recognize the early stages of uptrends and downtrends.
There are 2 main types of technical analysis: classical and computerized.
1. Classical analysis – This is based only on the study of charts, without using anything more complex than a pencil and a ruler. This is mainly the focus on uptrends and downtrends, support and resistance zones, as well as repetitive patterns, such as triangles and rectangles. Its main drawback is its subjectivity: if you are bullish, your ruler will tend to inch up and likewise, if you are bearish, your ruler will tend to inch down.
2. Computerized analysis – This is more of a modern approach whose signals are much more objective. The 2 main types are trend-following indicators and oscillators. Trend-following indicators include moving averages, Directional System, and MACD (moving average convergence-divergence), which all help to identify trends. Oscillators, such as Stochastic and Relative Strength Index (RSI) help identify reversals.
As you can observe, technical analysis is partly a science and partly an art—partly objective and partly subjective.
But be careful because charts are full of false breakouts, false reversals, and flat trading ranges.
Tags: buyers and sellers, classical technical analysis, computerized technical analysis, directional sysstem, false breakouts, false reversals, flat trading ranges, insiders, oscillators, relative strength index, stochastic, support and resistance, Technical Analysis, technical indicators, trend-following indicators, uptrends and downtrends, what is technical analysis Posted in Learn The Stock Market, Technical Analysis | Comments Off
Wednesday, January 4th, 2012
Want to know the method some of our legendary investors use? Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett both use fundamental analysis and value-investing techniques. Unlike technical analysis, fundamental analysis focuses on studying a company’s financial statements and earnings. By looking at the financial aspects of a company, such as its revenues, expenses, assets, and liabilities, fundamental analysts can use this information to predict future price movements of a company’s stock. However, fundamental analysis has a larger selection of indicators than technical analysis and appears in many different forms, such as studying economic indicators and reports released by the Federal Reserve.
One advantage of studying fundamental analysis is its objectivity, supported by mathematical and statistical methods. Fundamental analysis helps to identify the intrinsic value of a security by studying economic, financial, and other qualitative and quantitative factors. By using fundamental analysis and studying a considerable amount of research, an investor can better understand the company’s business and key factors that drive their revenue. Another advantage is that fundamental analysis identifies long-term investment opportunities based on long-term trends.
However, fundamental analysis does have its disadvantages. One disadvantage is that since fundamental analysis requires a lot of research, it is labor intensive and time-consuming. Some of us who work daily are too busy to go through a million news reports and economic data. Those people can consider using technical analysis, which focuses on price action. Technical analysis seems to be the preferred method for short-term traders.
Another disadvantage of fundamental analysis is that the analysis ignores much of what is happening in the stock market. They may miss out on short term opportunities that price patterns may bring.
In the end, you should consider using both technical analysis and fundamental analysis. A mix of technical and fundamental analysis can help you better predict a company’s future performance.
Tags: benjamin graham, fundamental analysis, Technical Analysis, warren buffett Posted in Learn The Stock Market | Comments Off
Saturday, August 1st, 2009
Learn the Stock Market Lesson – How Do We Trade Channels?
Channels can help us decide which stocks or futures to trade and which to ignore. A channel, or an envelope, helps us determine when a market has reached an undervalued or overvalued level. It consists of two lines, one above and one below a moving average. When channel lines exist, prices often trend between the two parallel lines and it can be used for profits.

There are two main types of channels:
1) Straight envelopes- Straight channels or envelopes are better for traders of stocks and futures. They stay at a steady distance from a moving average, providing steadier price targets.
2) Standard deviation channels (Bollinger Bands)- The spread between the upper and lower lines constantly changes in response to volatility. When Bollinger bands are wide, there is high volatility. Likewise, when Bollinger bands are narrow, volatility is low.
In an uptrend, the upper channel line tends to touch the tops, while the bottoms seldom reach the lower channel line. In a downtrend, the lower channel line tends to touch the bottoms, while the tops seldom reach the upper channel line. In a flat market, both tops and bottoms tend to touch their channel lines.
A well-drawn channel contains approximately 95% of all prices for the past several months. When you draw out a channel, you adjust it so that only a few extremes are pointing out.
The longer the timeframe is, the wider the channel will be, which also means there is greater price volatility. In this way, weekly channels are likely to be twice as wide as daily channels.
Trading Techniques for Channels
- Measure the channel – Before you enter in a trade, make sure you measure its channel because you want the swings to be wide enough so that you will have profit, especially if you have to pay for commissions and slippage. No matter how low the price is or how strong its technical pattern is, you must find a stock that has room to swing between the channel lines so that you can make a profit.
- Trade near EMA – If we are bullish, we want to buy near the rising EMA and take profits near the upper channel line. This is in when the market becomes overvalued, which is at or above the upper channel line. If we are bearish, we want to go short near the falling EMA and take profits near the lower channel line. This is when the market becomes undervalued, which is at or below the lower channel line.
- During Flat Moving Average - Go long at the lower channel line and short at the upper channel line. Take profits when prices goes back to the moving average.
- Breaking of Channel Lines – Unlike the breaking of a major trendline, which indicates an important change in trend, the breaking of a channel line indicates an acceleration of the existing trend and usually travels a distance equal to the width of the channel.
- Spotting a Weakening Trend – If prices fail to reach either side of the channel, it usually signals a weakening trend, an early warning of a reversal, and increases the odds that the other side of the channel will be broken too.
- Spotting a Strengthening Trend - If prices move above a projected channel by a significant amount, it usually signals a strengthening trend.
Tags: bollinger bands, channels, how do we trade channels, standard deviation channels, straight envelopes, Technical Analysis, trading techniques for channels, what are channels Posted in Learn The Stock Market, Technical Analysis | Comments Off
Tuesday, July 28th, 2009
Learn the Stock Market Lesson – Support and Resistance
Support and resistance is a concept in technical analysis, which is essential to understand in order to master reading price trends and pattern charts.
–> What is Resistance?
Example – Assume that Bob has been holding shares in Microsoft for 2 months and notices that, during that time period, its price had failed to pass $25 several times. However, he also notices the price has gotten very close to moving above $25. In this example, the price level near $25 is a level of resistance. If the price were to rise above $25, there would be a break in the resistance.
As you can probably assume from the example above, resistance refers to the price at which a stock trades, but not exceed past, for a period of time. The stock stops rising and does not break resistance because sellers start to outnumber buyers.
In other words, this resistance price level occurs when selling is sufficient enough to disrupt or reverse an uptrend. It is represented on a chart by a horizontal line that connects several tops, signifying that sellers are overpowering buyers. Resistance is also regarded as a ceiling because its price level prevents the prices from moving up and past it.

When the price reaches the resistance level, supply is believed to be stronger than the demand, which means that it is preventing the price from rising above the resistance. However, resistance does not always hold and when it breaks, it signals that the bulls have beaten the bears in that fight, creating new highs.
–> What is Support?
The support price level occurs when buying is sufficient enough to disrupt or reverse a downtrend. It is represented on a chart by a horizontal line that connects several bottoms, signifying that buyers are overpowering sellers. Support is also regarded as a floor because its price level prevents the prices from falling below it.

When the price reaches the support level, demand is believed to be stronger than the supply, which means that it is preventing the price from falling below the support. However, support does not always hold and when it breaks, it signals that the bears have beaten the bulls in that fight, creating new lows.

–> Strength of Support and Resistance
The strength of support and resistance is important because it helps you determine whether the trend is likely to continue or if it is going to reverse. Their significance can be determined by the:
- length of time they spend in a support or resistance area (the longer the period of time, the more significant the area is),
- volume (if a support or resistance level is formed on heavy volume, the level is regarded as more important than if formed on low volume),
- time (the more recent the trading took place, the more important it is)
–> False Breakouts
But beware of false breakouts. For example, the market might break a price resistance and rally, but then quickly reverses and falls. Likewise, the market can also break support briefly just before it reverses and rallies. Professionals love false breakouts because it provides one of the best trading opportunities.
Breakouts are similar to tails except that tails have a single wide bar, but false breakouts can have several bars, none of which are especially tall.
Tags: Learn The Stock Market, resistance, stock market, stock market lessons, support, support and resistance, Technical Analysis, what is support and resistance Posted in Learn The Stock Market, Technical Analysis | Comments Off
Friday, July 24th, 2009
Learn the Stock Market Lesson — Uptrends, Downtrends, and Trendlines
What are uptrends and downtrends?
Uptrend pattern:
- Each rally reaches a higher point than the preceding rally.
- Each decline reaches a higher point than the preceding decline.
(higher highs and higher lows)

Downtrend pattern:
- Each decline stops at a lower point than the preceding decline.
- Each rally stops at a lower level than the preceding rally.
(lower lows and lower highs)

What are trendlines?
Trendlines are lines that connect nearby bottoms or nearby tops, which are used to identify trends. The most important trait of a trendline is its angle, or slope, because it identifies the dominant market force.
Uptrendline:
- A line that connects 2 or more nearby bottoms and slants upwards.
- Bulls are in control. Look for buying opportunities.
- If we draw a line parallel to it across the nearby tops, it will mark a trading channel.
Downtrendline:
- A line that connects 2 or more nearby tops and slants downwards.
- Bears are in control. Look for shorting opportunities.
- If we draw a parallel line across the nearby bottoms, it will mark a trading channel.
Trading range:
- The lines connecting the tops and the lines connecting the bottoms are not slanting upwards nor downwards – the lines are close to the horizontal.
- We can either wait for a breakout to step in or trade short-term swings within that range. (Beware of false breakouts)
- Often referred to as “trendless”

Techniques
It is better to draw trendlines across the edges of congestion areas instead of price extremes because extreme points reflect panic only among the weakest crowd members. The breaking of a trendline is one of the warnings of a trend reversal.
A trendline is also more important and valid if:
1- It’s over a longer timeframe. A trendline on a weekly chart is more important than a daily trendline.
2- The trendline is longer in length. A short trendline reveals mass behavior for only a short period of time whereas a longer one reveals mass behavior for a longer time.
3- There is more contact between the price and trendline. A trendline that is only beginning to form only touches 2 points. More points of contact makes the trendline more valid.
4- Increasing Volume. When prices move in the direction of a trendline, an increase in volume confirms that trendline.
Real Life Example:
Uptrend:

Tags: downtrends, stock market, Technical Analysis, trading range, trendless, trendline lines, uptrends, what are uptrends and downtrends Posted in Learn The Stock Market, Technical Analysis | Comments Off
Thursday, July 23rd, 2009
There are different kinds of crossovers that traders use to generate buy signals. I personally use moving average crossovers, price & moving average crossovers, macd crossovers and stochastic crossovers. You can easily find stocks with these patterns at http://www.dojispace.com.
MACD Crossover
Let’s look at the following stock, KHD. MACD crossover occurs 4 times on the chart, and each time the stock went up quite a bit right after.

Stochastic Crossover
Stochastic crossover works pretty well for the following stock, AMED. There were 5 stochastic crossovers for this stock, and the stock went up after the crossovers. If you look at the chart carefully, the stock seems to be more bullish when the stochastic crossover is sharper.

Again, technical analysis is all about pattern recognition. You can get in when you find a pattern that you think is profitable and get out when that pattern breaks. That’s why you need to watch a lot of stocks. Some stocks might work out, some don’t. In the past few years, I’ve seen people lose money because they tend to hold their stocks too long even after the pattern is broken. What they did is the following
1. They find a pattern on a stock and buys it.
2. The stock drops and the pattern is broken.
3. They keep holding the stock, hoping it will go up again.
4. Their losses are getting bigger and bigger, eventually destroying their whole portfolio.
5. They decide to move on by either giving up completely or looking for other stocks.
This is not going to work. There is no magic in technical analysis and it doesn’t work all the time. You need to learn to get out of the trade when the pattern is turned against you. You may argue, “what if the stock did go up when after you sell the stock?” This happens all the time, but what if the stock doesn’t go up and goes bankrupt instead? You will lose all your money on one single stock. To win the game, you need to be disciplined instead of hoping.
Tags: amed, crossovers, dojispace, khd, macd crossovers, moving average crossovers, price crossovers, stochastic crossovers, Technical Analysis, technical indicators Posted in Technical Analysis | Comments Off
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Macd Crossdown Pattern
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Day Volume Percentage Down Pattern
Relative Strength Index (Rsi) Crossdown Pattern
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