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Flags and Pennants

Friday, September 11th, 2009

Flags and pennants are common patterns in the market and are pretty similar in appearance, both representing brief pauses before resuming its original trend. They are very reliable continuation patterns and rarely produce a trend reversal.

  1. First, there is a sharp market move, resembling almost a straight line (flagpole) on heavy volume.
  2. Prices pause for 1-3 weeks on light volume, forming a consolidation pattern.
  3. Prices break out and the trend resumes in the direction prior to the flag or pennant on heavy volume.

Both patterns usually appear in the middle of a market move and, therefore, the move after the flag or pennant will travel the same distance of the move preceding the pattern.

The Flag

The flag is shown below, indicated by 2 parallel trendlines in the shape of a parallelogram, which tends to slope against the trend.

bullish flag

The Pennant

The pennant is shown below, indicated by 2 converging trendlines, resembling a symmetrical triangle.

bullish pennant

What is Exponential Moving Average?

Sunday, September 6th, 2009

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Exponential moving average is another type of moving average, which gives greater weight to more recent data as opposed to the simple moving average. It responds to changes faster than a simple MA. EMA is calculated by multiplying a greater percentage to the latest data, as opposed to giving the same weight for both. Here is the formula to calculate exponential moving average:

EMA = Ptoday* K + Emayesterday * (1-K), where
- K = 2/(N+1)
- N = the number of days in the EMA
- Ptoday = today’s closing price
- Emayesterday = yesterday’s Ema

Trading Signal:
- A buy signal is triggered when closing prices cross above the EMA.
- A sell signal is triggered when closing prices cross below the EMA.

Example:
Let’s look at the stock charts of Apple and Citigroup as examples. A buy signal is generated when prices cross above the 9 day EMA, as circled below. A sell signal is generated when prices cross below the 9 day EMA.

ema1ema2

What is a Simple Moving Average?

Saturday, August 29th, 2009

Moving Average (MA) is one of the most popular and easy-to-use tools available for technical analysts. There are two main types of moving averages: simple moving average and exponential moving average.

How Do We Calculate Simple Moving Average?
A simple moving average is calculated by computing the average closing price of a security over a specified number of periods. For example, a 10-day moving average is calculated by adding the closing price for the last 10 days and dividing the result by 10. 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10=55, 55/10 = 5.5 (Assuming that the closing prices for the 10 days are 1-10 consecutively). When you plot the moving average for each date on a graph, it forms a curve.

Trading Signals:
- A buy signal is triggered when closing prices cross above the moving average (MA).
- A sell signal is triggered when closing prices cross below the moving average (MA).

Example:
Let’s look at the stock charts for MSFT and YGE as an example. A buy signal is generated when prices cross above the 10 day moving average  as circled in 1, 2, 3. A sell signal is generated when price crosses below the 10 day moving average.
ma1ma2

Disadvantage:
The main disadvantage of a  simple moving average is that it does not reflect the current trend quickly. For example, if the stock prices in the last 10 days for a certain stock were 100, 99, 98, 45, 44, 45, 43, 42, 43, 42, the simple moving average would be 60.1. This moving average is 50% above the current price which wouldn’t be accurate to trigger an entry signal. In other words, if there is an extreme high or extreme low in the stock price, it distorts the true value of the stock. For this reason, another type of moving average called exponential moving average (EMA) was developed, giving more weight to the most recent prices.

Types of Triangles

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

Triangles usually represent continuation patterns. A triangle is a congestion area where resistance, forming the upper boundary, and support, forming the lower boundary, converge on the right. The triangle’s upper boundary represents sellers overpowering buyers, preventing the market from rising. Its lower boundary represents buyers overpowering sellers, preventing the market from declining. As the two boundaries start to converge, a breakout forms.

There are 3 types of triangles:

1) Symmetrical Triangles-

- A fair balance of power between bulls and bears. Both are equally confident since bulls keep paying up and bears keep selling lower.
- Represented by the convergence of an ascending support line and a descending resistance line.
- The breakout is likely to resume in the direction of the trend that preceded the formation of the triangle.

2) Ascending Triangles
- These triangles are bullish patterns, with a flat upper boundary and a rising lower boundary, converging on the right.
- The flat boundary shows that bulls are becoming more aggressive while bears are losing their ability to drive down the prices. Bears are defending the line that they’ve drawn, but if they collapse and the attacking bulls succeed, its breakout is likely to be steep.
- An ascending triangle is more likely to result in an upside breakout, thus the logic of buying upside breakouts from ascending triangles is derived.

3) Descending Triangles
- These triangles are bearish patterns, with a flat lower boundary and a declining upper boundary converging on the right.
- The flat boundary shows that bears are becoming more aggressive while bulls are losing their ability to drive up the prices. Bulls are defending the line that they’ve drawn, but if they collapse and the attacking bears succeed, its break is likely to be sharp.
- A descending triangle is more likely to result in a downside breakout, thus the logic of shorting downside breakouts from descending triangles is derived.

Broadening Formation (Inverted Triangle)

This inverted triangle is basically a triangle turned backwards and is relatively rare. Instead of trendlines converging at the right, the trendlines actually diverge in a broadening formation. It is also known as a megaphone top.This type of pattern usually occurs at major tops and is usually a bearish formation.

MORE ABOUT TRIANGLES

Price Patterns: Reversal and Continuation

Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

Price Patterns: Reversal and Continuation

There are two main price patterns:

1) Reversal Patterns- Indicates that the trend will reverse. A few of the most common reversal patterns include:

a. Head and shoulders

b. Double tops and bottoms

c. Triple tops and bottoms


2)
Continuation Patterns- The trend pauses for awhile but it resumes. A few of the most common continuation patterns include:

a. Triangles (1), Triangles (2)

b. Rectangles (Coming Soon!)

c. Flags and Pennants (Coming Soon!)

What are Triple Tops and Bottoms?

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

What are Triple Tops and Bottoms?

The triple top or bottom is another reversal pattern, which rarely occurs. It is a stronger pattern than the double top or bottom pattern since the likelihood of a reversal is higher.

The triple top or bottom pattern is a slight variation of the head and shoulders pattern. The main difference is that in a triple top, the three peaks are around the same level, whereas in a head and shoulders pattern, the head is at a slightly higher peak than both of the shoulders.

  • Triple Top Pattern

triple tops

A triple top pattern is complete after both troughs have been broken on heavy volume. Prices must close below the support levels to complete a triple top pattern, signaling the reversal to a new downtrend. There might also be a return move to the breakout point, but should not exceed it, before the downtrend resumes.

Volume

Similar to volume in the presence of a head and shoulders pattern, volume during a triple top pattern tends to decline at each subsequent peak, but increases at the breakdown point, leading to the new downtrend.

  • Triple Bottom Pattern

As you can see, a triple bottom pattern is a mirror image of the triple top.

triple bottoms

A triple bottom pattern is complete after both peaks have been broken on heavy volume. Prices must close above the resistance levels to complete a triple bottom pattern, signaling the reversal to a new uptrend. There might also be a return move to the breakout point, but should not decline below it, before the uptrend resumes.

Volume

Similar to volume in the presence of a head and shoulders pattern, volume during a triple bottom pattern tends to decline at each subsequent bottom, but increases at the breakout point, leading to the new uptrend.

Example:

As you can see from the example below, the stock WMGI just formed a triple bottom pattern. After reaching its 3rd bottom at about $13.75 per share, it rallied up to $16.50. That’s a 20% gain!

triple bottoms

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